You might have seen my video on the MBA admissions year that was 2025. To recap, I talked about some of the disruption to the admissions environment that occurred as a result of the Trump administration’s ongoing battle with American universities. We are speculating that application volumes dropped significantly among international applicants in 2025. Just as the season should have started ramping up last year, the tariff story took off, causing significant uncertainty. And owe assume that the tariffs and AI also slowed domestic applications.
In a way, having been a bit of sluggish year for MBA applicants meant that ironically, it was likely an excellent year to apply, thanks to candidates having less competition. But that was 2025. The question now is what will 2026 be like?
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Taking a Long View as an International Applicant
Some international applicants who were discouraged from applying last year might now do the math and realize that if they apply in 2026, they will graduate near the end of the current administration. The reality on the ground is still uncertain from an international applicant’s perspective. So again, ironically, this should be a great year for international candidates to apply to a U.S. school. Taking the long view would mean that internationals would be applying in a less competitive pool, yet earning the same degree in the end, of course.
Some pent-up demand from 2025 could enter the 2026 pool, but we do not foresee international application volumes recovering this year unless we experience some sort of economic shock to the system, which often sends applicants to business school en masse.
How AI and ROI Concerns Are Affecting MBA Demand
How does AI factor into this story? This element is far more complicated. Some applicants are feeling uncertain about the future and are fearful of spending money on their education, concerned that the degree might not have the desired ROI. At the same time, others feel that the only way to stand out in the employment pool is to have more education and especially an education that teaches the soft skills, such as leadership, organizational behavior, and ethics. For now, until a clear victor emerges between these two schools of thought, we imagine that uncertainty will weigh on the applicant community. Notably, interest in professional schools such as law and medicine is actually surging right now, because these offer clear paths to jobs. An MBA is more vague. But now is actually a great time for domestic applicants with that long view.
Why Deferred MBA Applications Are Becoming More Competitive
One corner where the applicant pool might be getting more competitive is deferred applications. We have seen a surge in interest in this area recently, largely because of the abysmal employment numbers for new college graduates. Students who are in college currently are eager to have a clear path going forward. So, applying to business school now and having that life raft waiting in two, three, four, or even five years can be pretty reassuring.
With parents still pretty involved in many college seniors’ decision-making, we are hearing stories of anxious parents pushing their kids to apply to deferred programs so that they have options. What do we say to seniors interested in deferred applications? Applying to a deferred program comes with no downside. If you get in, great, and if not, you can still apply to regular MBA programs in a few years with no penalty at all. In fact, you might even have a minor leg up, because you will have already shown your commitment and interest to that MBA program. So now is really a great time to invest in being your best applicant. We would be delighted to connect with you for a free 30-minute consultation to ensure that you understand how to do just that.
OnTrack by mbaMission and Application Resources
I invite you to check out OnTrack by mbaMission, our comprehensive asynchronous MBA application course. In OnTrack, we break down every aspect of the business school application process, including program selection, standardized testing, application essays, recommendations, and interviews. Plus, we give you a deep dive into more than 15 of the top MBA programs, covering everything you need to know about the schools and their specific applications. Sign up for a free plan at ontrack.mbamission.com, and upgrade when you are ready for more content.
Why MBA ROI Should Be Measured Long Term
I have thus far discussed the trends affecting the here and now, but one thing I always remind MBA applicants is that virtually no MBA graduate who is years out from their time on campus considers the impact of their degree on the basis of their first year. Instead, they consider it on the basis of their entire career. My stance is that if you have determined that you want an MBA, you should apply to business school not in an “up” or “down” year, but in the year that is right for you. If you apply in 2026 and graduate in 2028, who knows where the economy or the world will be? And who knows where it will be in 2038 or 2048?
MBA alumni tend to look back on their time in business school and say that the skills they learned taught them to manage change and manage their careers, and that is a long-term investment. If you feel that you are ready to take the next step, check out the mbaMission podcast , which has more than 80 episodes on every MBA admissions topic imaginable.
